Decision Making in Fire Risk Management

Various normative decision theories are discussed in the context of fire risk management. A method suitable for practical decision making in respect to fire safety investments is presented and exemplified. The method involves the use of second-order probabilities to represent uncertainty regarding probability values. A discussion on the use of Bayes theorem in combination with decision analysis is also included. The two case studies the thesis includes involve decisions regarding investments in water sprinkler systems for facilities belonging to the companies ABB and Avesta Sheffield, respectively. Calculations of the net present value of these investments are dealt with in the case studies. © Copyright: Brandteknik, Lunds tekniska högskola, Lunds universitet, Lund 2001. Department of Fire Safety Engineering Lund University P.O. Box 118 SE-221 00 Lund Sweden [email protected] http://www.brand.lth.se/english Telephone: +46 46 222 73 60 Fax: +46 46 222 46 12 Brandteknik Lunds tekniska högskola Lunds universitet Box 118 221 00 Lund [email protected] http://www.brand.lth.se Telefon: 046 222 73 60 Telefax: 046 222 46 12